The Vulnerability of Aluminum Supplies in Europe: Geopolitical Uncertainties and Strategic Dependence

Aluminum supply in Europe is experiencing one of the most uncertain periods in its recent history. Southern shipping routes present unprecedented geopolitical risks, while rising transatlantic tensions threaten to add further instability. The European aluminum supply chain has never been more vulnerable, with profound implications for the continent's economic security and industrial competitiveness.

The recent attacks against Iran have dramatically highlighted the risk the European Union faces of being cut off from vital energy and aluminum supplies. This serious geopolitical escalation, the uncertainties surrounding the Iranian regime's stability, and the possibility of a resumption of hostilities at any time could trigger a chain of uncontrollable events, potentially existential for the EU aluminum industry, particularly in the event of a disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz: a strategic bottleneck with a geopolitical impact on smelters

Looking at the entire landscape of the southern sea routes that supply Europe with aluminum, it's clear that the Union must urgently review its supply policies and decisions. Protecting the sector's economic security and ensuring its competitiveness in the face of often aggressive and unfair international competition are priorities that can no longer be postponed.

After the attacks, the Iranian Parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz and withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), resulting in the expulsion of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors. At the same time, Tehran has intensified its internal repression, with no sign of political easing on the horizon.

This represents a marked worsening of the risk situation for the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran engaged in nuclear activities outside of international control, and with Israel—empowered by the Trump administration—and the United States poised for new military interventions. Insecurity has already impacted shipping in the Gulf: some major shipowners and insurance companies have limited their services in the area.

In an extreme scenario, Europe could be cut off from essential energy and aluminum supplies. A closure, even partial or accidental, of the Strait of Hormuz would isolate the world's largest integrated fossil fuel and aluminum production hub, primarily destined for the European and Asian markets.

The consequences? An explosion in aluminum prices for smelters to levels unsustainable for European industry, exacerbated by the fact that the world's leading producer of low-carbon aluminum is currently excluded from Western markets. The effects would be devastating: a brutal amplification of the already severe economic crisis, market panic, production disruptions, loss of industrial capacity, social tensions, and political instability.

Europe's Structural Deficit: A Critical Dependence in Numbers

The European aluminum supply chain has never been more fragile. The structural deficit of primary aluminum now exceeds 87% of the continent's needs, requiring the annual import of approximately 8 million tonnes. This dependence represents a strategic vulnerability of alarming proportions due to the geopolitical impact on European foundries.

Added to this is the concrete risk of a scrap leak to the United States, where this strategic material is exempt from the recently confirmed 50% tariff on aluminum imports. Furthermore, the restrictions introduced following the war in Ukraine further limit the EU's supply options, making us increasingly dependent on long, polluting, expensive, and unsafe maritime routes.

This systemic risk undermines any hypothesis of circularity: first, because primary aluminum is indispensable for most applications, whether alone or mixed with secondary metal; Second, because the new US tariffs affect processed aluminum but not scrap, incentivizing European exports and triggering a crisis for the European recycling sector, which is penalized by price factors.

The result is that the EU will be increasingly unable to meet its demand for both primary and secondary aluminum. Trade tensions between the US and the EU could intensify, extending to strategic sectors such as digital, agri-food, and healthcare. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has reaffirmed its intention to control Greenland and exert pressure on Ottawa: can we really consider Canadian aluminum exports to Europe guaranteed in the long term?

Global Threats to Europe's Aluminum Supply

Geopolitics requires long-term vision and preparation, and the long term is built today: strategic resilience arises from timely and informed choices. The "global war for critical minerals" is also being waged in Africa, with Washington engaged in an assertive strategy to counter Chinese influence over resources and infrastructure. In this context, the EU appears to be in a decidedly weak position.

In the aluminum sector, in particular, there is no European "strategic autonomy": on the contrary, we are witnessing a growing strategic dependence on imports. Insecurity along the southern routes—in the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, along the coasts of East and West Africa (compelled by the deteriorating situation in the Sahel, the Gulf of Guinea, and Nigeria), and in the Indo-Pacific—compounds transatlantic tensions, including around Greenland and Canada, projecting Europe into an unprecedented state of vulnerability in the raw aluminum supply chain. A risk not seen so dramatically since the Second World War.

Another threatening scenario is unfolding in Southeast Asia, where Chinese naval operations are becoming increasingly aggressive. Beijing combines the concepts of "defense of near seas" with that of "protection of distant seas," in a vast area that includes Japan, Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand, with military bases as far away as Djibouti, and trade routes from which Europe imports primary aluminum (Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia).

Senior US commanders of the Pacific Fleet and the NATO Secretary General have warned that China could attack Taiwan between 2027 and 2030—or perhaps even sooner. Even without an invasion, a total naval and air blockade by Beijing—nearly impossible to counter—would have a colossal impact on shipping routes, financial markets, and the price of aluminum for foundries, should regional supply chains be disrupted.

The Baltic Sea is one of Europe's main supply routes for low-carbon aluminum. However, with Russia's war against Ukraine, the region has seen an increase in hostile activity, including military provocations, espionage operations, sabotage of underwater energy infrastructure and the cable network, as well as irregular traffic via shadow fleets.

Yet, with the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, the Baltic Sea has become a veritable "NATO lake." The paradox is that, in the absence of direct military hostilities between Russia and NATO (within the EU, only Cyprus, Malta, Ireland, and Austria are not members of the Alliance), the Baltic routes today appear among the safest in the world, aside from environmental risks and traffic density.

Towards a European Security of Supply Strategy

Over the past two years, industry associations have repeatedly raised the alarm about the risks posed by restrictions, blockages, and vulnerabilities in primary aluminum supplies: from regulatory bans to critical southern routes, to emerging geopolitical tensions such as expanding trade wars and pressure on North American countries and territories.

The EU finds itself competing with other markets, particularly the United States, for access to critical raw materials like aluminum. And it does so from a position of geopolitical weakness and structural vulnerability: a lack of natural resources, fragmented alliances, an increasingly transnational world, and an absolute dependence on maritime routes.

In light of these vast and potentially existential risks to European industry, the Council of the EU, the European Commission, and the European External Action Service (EEAS) should urgently review all policies related to domestic and international supplies of primary and secondary aluminum to mitigate growing challenges and ensure secure, stable, competitive, and low-emission supplies.

The recent attacks against Iran are a clear reminder: to safeguard its economic security, the EU must keep all supply options open and available, including reviewing bans and restrictions, liberalizing unwrought aluminum imports, preventing scrap leakage, and strengthening the recycling sector.

Conclusions: Aluminum as an Economic Security Priority

Aluminum, both primary and secondary, is a strategic and critical raw material for Europe. The EU has a growing and structural deficit, and almost all external supply routes are now exposed to significant geopolitical risks. For this reason, aluminum supply in Europe is not just a matter of competitiveness and ecological transition: it is an economic security priority that requires immediate and structural responses.

Source: A&L Aluminium Alloys Pressure DiecastingFoundry Techniques