Primary Aluminum Shortfall in 2026: Global Shortage and Secondary Market Growth

This is not a particularly calm time for the aluminum market. Many, even conflicting, factors are at play, making it difficult to provide precise guidelines for industry operators.

Primary Aluminum Shortage in 2026: The Risk of a Global Deficit

An initial worrying sign concerns the possibility of a global primary aluminum deficit in 2026. There are fears that the primary metal shortage could worsen due to production and movement disruptions in the Gulf region, restrictions on alumina and primary metal flows in the Strait of Hormuz, and the resulting progressive decline in global stocks.

Estimates confirm a deficit of close to 2 million tonnes: a significant figure considering that global primary aluminum production in 2025 was 74 million tonnes. The squeeze on the availability of primary aluminum from the Gulf is particularly impacting supply destined for Europe.

Currently, the primary aluminum shortage in 2026, linked to Middle Eastern tensions and the competition from the EU and the United States in terms of demand, are holding up the market. However, concerns remain about possible negative effects on Asian demand. The reality is that, despite the macroeconomic slowdown, regional premiums remain high as consumers compete for the material, and supply issues continue to be the main factor supporting the market. It's worth noting that, since the recent conflicts in the Middle East, aluminum has been the best-performing non-ferrous metal.

The Secondary Aluminum Market: Growing Demand for Scrap

Global supply issues for primary aluminum are drawing increased attention to the secondary aluminum recycling market, with demand for scrap growing in all major global markets. Scrap prices are expected to rise significantly in 2026, driven by both limited physical availability and rising replacement costs for primary metal.

This situation continues to support secondary alloy prices and fuel concerns about scrap availability, amidst a lackluster demand environment—with moderate demand from the automotive industry. This market is therefore driven by supply rather than demand, with the market experiencing some difficulty in sourcing scrap as a raw material.

The open questions that Europe can no longer postpone

The aluminum industry remains vital globally, but Europe cannot afford a passive defense without addressing, defining, and resolving the serious issues still outstanding:

• The unstoppable decline in primary raw material production;
• The insufficient development of recovery and recycling;
• Intelligent control of imports and exports along the entire supply chain;
• The energy issue, which must be addressed with hard facts and concrete proposals.

The primary aluminum deficit in 2026 is not a cyclical crisis but a sign of structural imbalances that require urgent systemic responses from European institutions.

Source: A&L Aluminium Alloys Pressure Diecasting Foundry Techniques